It now appears to be Cameron’s turn to suffer in this political game of snakes and ladders. Conservatives had been buoyant after a weekend of constructive talks with the Liberal Democrats. Until, that is, Brown showed that even in political death, he can still play politics like few others in this country.
Appearing outside Number Ten, he announced that Labour were in formal discussions with the Liberal Democrats, that he would step down as Labour Leader by the conference season in the Autumn and that nominations would begin on his successor. In the meantime, he hoped to carry on with the support of the Liberal Democrats and presumably other minority parties.
The Conservatives were stunned. Their response saw William Hague offering a referendum on voting reform. But many Conservative MPs and supporters loathe the idea of voting reform and Cameron’s backbenchers are unlikely to support it. They may point to an interview with David Cameron on 25th April with the Observer, where he said: “I want us to keep the current system that enables you to throw a government out of office. That is my view. Put the question in, you know, Serbo-Croat, if you want to – but you’re going to get the same answer.”
The Political Prize:
For Cameron, power was expected by many of his MPs and campaigners. Although his party cannot claim to have won the election, he will feel he is entitled because he won the most seats. He is calculating that a Labour Opposition would implode and fall apart far faster than any alliance would with the Liberal Democrats.
For Labour, a spell in Opposition on the face of it may not look like a bad idea. The country is likely to face tax rises and harsh public spending cuts over the life of the next parliament. There is uncertainty in Europe, with Greece facing political unrest and economic ruin. In Germany, chancellor Merkel is losing support, creating more political uncertainty. Slinking away from this and being able to blame both parties whilst regrouping (and refinancing) could be strategically favourable.
However, Labour sense a bigger prize. If they can hold together a political union with the Liberal Democrats and deliver voting reform, then there could be a centre left coalition for the foreseeable future. The Tories could be consigned to history.
All parties appear to be doing anything to get a job that in the current circumstances could be the political ruination for whoever holds it. More later.
Market Reaction at 10.45am:
Shares: no speculated collapse in the FTSE this morning, it is down 1.75%.
Pound: Down 0.9% against the US dollar, up 0.77% against the Euro, down 1% against the Yen
Political Reaction:
Sir Malcom Rifkind MP:
“The idea that the two parties that suffered most in this election, that were rejected by the electorate, that in the case of the Labour party lost a hundred of its seats, should put together an illegitimate government, this is the Robert Mugabe style of politics. It’s exactly what Mugabe did you know, he lost the election and scrabbled to hold onto power.”
Angus Robertston MP (SNP Westminster leader)
“85% of voters in Scotland did not vote for the Conservative Party, and the idea that we could have a coalition cobbled between the third and fourth parties – because that is what they are the Tories and Lib Dems are in Scotland – would be totally unacceptable,”
Lord Ashdown:
“We have, on one hand, the question of stability and on the other hand, the programme of what is best for the country.”
Caroline Lucas MP (Green):
“This has been getting called a progressive coalition, but I have to say from our perspective there isn’t very much that’s progressive about Labour or indeed, in many respects, the Liberal Democrats. So this is hopefully a coalition of reform, but I think in order to earn that name, if you like, then thoroughgoing electoral and political reform absolutely has to be at its heart.”
Peter Hain MP:
“Following the verdict of the people last Thursday, Gordon Brown has acted in the interests of the country. I pay tribute to his courage and leadership during very difficult times.”
Douglas Alexander MP:
“I can’t envisage circumstances in which we would enter into agreement with the Scottish National Party because there are fundamental differences between the Labour Party and SNP”.
David Miliband slip of the tongue?:
“I’m certainly not going to be saying anything more – and none of the candidates are going to be saying anything more either.”
Tessa Jowell MP:
“If the Liberals come to us and say can we discuss with you the possibility of cooperation in circumstances where no party has an overall majority, then I think that people would feel we were pretty irresponsible if we said no.”
David Blunkett:
“Can you trust the Liberal Democrats? They are behaving like every harlot in history.”
Simon Hughes MP:
“Our view has always been that we need to get a conclusion as soon as possible, certainly within this working week, we have had four days since the election results were declared.”
Lord Heseltine:
“The only viable solution is for David Cameron to become the prime minister.”
Newspaper Headlines:
The Daily Mirror – ‘For the greater Gord…’
The Sun – ‘Going Brown’
The Daily Mail – ‘A squalid day for democracy’
City A.M. – ‘Brown’s endgame’
Daily Express – ‘This shabby stitch-up’
The Guardian – ‘Brown plays last card’
Financial Times – ‘Brown to quit in bid to win over Lib Dems’
The Daily Telegraph – ‘A very Labour coup’
The Times – ‘His parting shot’
Media Reaction:
The Financial Times – “Britain deserves better than this. The country needs a new government capable of setting out a credible back to fiscal rectitude. The price of a Lib-Lab agreement would be too high. To command the support of the regional parties, the government would almost certainly have to exempt them from the brunt of the severe cuts in public spending which will be required.”
The Daily Telegraph – “It is a measure of Gordon Brown’s loose grip on reality that he yesterday sought to depict his decision to stand down later this year as a noble act of self-sacrifice made in the national interest. The truth is that this was an act of quite staggering cynicism based on naked party advantage. With the incomprehensible connivance of Nick Clegg – whose reputation will surely never recover – Mr Brown is effectively seeking to nullify the result of last week’s general election.”
The Times – “The notion that Gordon Brown can be permitted to stay on as Prime Minister for another five months is an affront to democracy and – as the immediate movement of the pound showed – a danger to the economy. The mooted deal, in which the new coalition might force through a change to the electoral system without putting that to the people in a referendum, would be cynical to the point of moral corruption. Labour, however, has denied any such intention.”
The Guardian – “A coalition between the Liberal Democrats and Labour under a new leader is anything but a done deal at this stage. There are genuine problems of parliamentary arithmetic . Labour can be a brutal party as well as a benign one. Even after Mr. Brown’s announcement, there are issues of legitimacy with large electoral consequences to be assessed. The mere possibility of a progressive coalition is likely to rouse sections of the press to viciousness. It is vital to hold steady under this predictable assault.”
Ben Brogan, Daily Telegraph blogger – “Nick Clegg said the party that won the most seats and votes should have first go. He said he wanted to ensure strong and stable government in the national interest. He made plain he has little personal time for Mr Brown. His mentor Lord Ashdown on Sunday said Mr Brown was personally unsuited to coalition. David Laws said a few hours ago that the Lib Dems and Conservatives were down to negotiating over specific policy details, but a deal was near. How then will they explain themselves if, as Gordon Brown has announced, they are now negotiating a coalition of the losers with Labour?”
Ian Dale, political blogger – “The LibDems should bear one thing in mind when riding their two horses. David Milliband, the Labour leadership favourite, isn’t even on the Labour neogtiating team. So what happens when he takes over as Labour’s latest unelected Prime Minister? Will he be committed to the terms of the coalition agreement signed by Gordon Brown? One government is not bound by its predecessor.”
David Blunkett, Labour MP, The Guardian – “My belief is that it is untenable to create a rainbow alliance, dependent not just on the vagaries of a Liberal Democrat party prepared to get into bed with whoever is offering the most, but also the Nationalists or Ulster representatives – who could pull the plug on a coalition of the defeated at any time. This would result, almost inevitably, in a massive defeat for Labour at the hands of an electorate who would blame us for flouting the will of the substantial minority.”
Nick Robinson, BBC political editor – “Gordon Brown has made an audacious bid, not just to keep Labour in power but to reshape British politics by creating the sort of coalition not seen in Britain since the World War II. The prime minister was told by cabinet colleagues and by senior Liberal Democrats that there was little in the way of policy to stop their two parties working together, but that he was a barrier, in part because he was seen as un collegiate, in part because his continued presence was regarded as electorally toxic.”
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