2010 United Kingdom General Elections

Additional election analysis by the Fleishman-Hillard public affairs team in London:

09:30 – 12th May 2010

Cabinet Members (5 due to be Liberal Democrat, according to reports)

Prime Minister – David Cameron MP

Deputy Prime Minister – Nick Clegg MP

Foreign Secretary – William Hague MP

Chancellor of the Exchequer – George Osborne MP

Two sources confirm:

Defence Secretary – Liam Fox MP

Health Secretary – Andrew Lansley MP

Work and Pensions Secretary – Philip Hammond MP

Scotland Secretary – Danny Alexander MP

Currently Speculated:

Vince Cable MP – a Treasury role, speculated as ‘Business and Banking’ within the Cabinet

Chris Huhne MP – Climate Change

David Laws MP – Schools Secretary

A Collective Responsibility

David Cameron MP will spend his first full day in Downing Street confirming his Cabinet and senior Ministers. Clegg is due to join him there in the next few minutes in his new role as Deputy Prime Minister. The BBC are updating Cabinet posts as they are confirmed here.   It has been reported that there will be five Liberal Democrat Cabinet posts, and that up to 20 Liberal Democrats will get Ministerial jobs in total. This means that over one third of Clegg’s parliamentary party will be bound by collective responsibility.

Cameron will be publishing details of his coalition agreement today, with a more detailed announcement within the next 10 days.  In the meantime, we understand that already agreed are:

  • An emergency Budget within the next 50 days with plans for £6 billion of spending reductions
  • The Liberal Democrats scrapping their ‘Mansion House’ tax on properties over £2m
  • The Tories scrapping their plans to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m
  • Plans to raise income tax thresholds for low earners
  • The Liberal Democrats dropping their plans to scrap Trident with a view to a ‘value for money’ scrutiny of the programme
  • A referendum on the Alternative Vote system
  • Plans for 5 years fixed term parliaments
  • Liberal Democrat concessions on Tory proposals for a cap on non-EU migration

For the Labour Opposition, Alan Johnson MP has signaled he will not stand for Labour Leader, following Harriet Harman MP’s similar announcement yesterday. This leaves the door open for both Miliband brothers – and Ed Balls MP to launch a challenge.

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May 12th, 2010 by Simon Benson

Gordon Brown has resigned as Prime Minister

In the last few minutes, Gordon Brown MP announced that he was going to Buckingham Palace to ask the Queen to accept his resignation as Prime Minister. To applause from the Downing Street and Labour staff, he joined his wife Sarah and for the first time in front of the cameras, his two small children, for the journey to Buckingham Palace. He said that Labour had left the UK ‘more prosperous and just’. He added that he had strived ‘to serve, to do my best’. In an emotional passage, he praised tribute to the UK’s armed forces, saying ‘I always admire the courage I have seen in our armed services.’ He confirmed that his resignation as Leader of the Labour Party was immediate. His final words at Downing Street were ‘thank you and goodbye’. David Cameron MP will be the Prime Minister within the next hour. It is speculated on Sky News that Nick Clegg will be Deputy Prime Minister.

May 11th, 2010 by Simon Benson

1715 Update 11 May

 

After five days of negotiations, it looks like David Cameron MP and Nick Clegg MP have finally come to a deal.

It would appear that the UK will soon either have a Conservative minority Government with the Liberal Democrats in a ‘confidence and supply’ position, supporting the Tories on critical votes – or a full coalition between both parties.

Labour and Liberal Democrat sources have both said that their negotiations, led by Ed Balls MP, were not successful. Labour sources have added that talks ‘did not even get off the ground’.

Tory MPs have been told to be ‘on stand-by’ for a meeting as late as 2000 tonight. The Evening Standard are already saying that the Prime Minister ‘has quit’, which is likely to be news to the Queen, whom the Prime Minister must see in order to formally resign.

What happens next?

Nick Clegg is meeting his MPs and Federal Executive at 1930 tonight where he is likely to get the final approval for a deal with the Conservatives.

David Cameron is likely to announce afterwards that talks are over. He will formally ask the Prime Minister to stand down.  Gordon Brown, seeing the writing on the wall, could pre-empt a Conservative announcement, informing the media that he will tomorrow seek an audience with the Queen in order to resign as Prime Minister. 

If this is the actuality, then David Cameron is facing one of the greatest political challenges of any post-war Prime Minister. Many Labour MPs and aides will be considering that now may be a very pertinent time to enter Opposition.

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May 11th, 2010 by Simon Benson

Situation Update 11 May

 It now appears to be Cameron’s turn to suffer in this political game of snakes and ladders. Conservatives had been buoyant after a weekend of constructive talks with the Liberal Democrats. Until, that is, Brown showed that even in political death, he can still play politics like few others in this country.

Appearing outside Number Ten, he announced that Labour were in formal discussions with the Liberal Democrats, that he would step down as Labour Leader by the conference season in the Autumn and that nominations would begin on his successor. In the meantime, he hoped to carry on with the support of the Liberal Democrats and presumably other minority parties.

The Conservatives were stunned.  Their response saw William Hague offering a referendum on voting reform.  But many Conservative MPs and supporters loathe the idea of voting reform and Cameron’s backbenchers are unlikely to support it.  They may point to an interview with David Cameron on 25th April  with the Observer, where he said: “I want us to keep the current system that enables you to throw a government out of office. That is my view.  Put the question in, you know, Serbo-Croat, if you want to – but you’re going to get the same answer.”

The Political Prize:

For Cameron, power was expected by many of his MPs and campaigners. Although his party cannot claim to have won the election, he will feel he is entitled because he won the most seats. He is calculating that a Labour Opposition would implode and fall apart far faster than any alliance would with the Liberal Democrats.

For Labour, a spell in Opposition on the face of it may not look like a bad idea. The country is likely to face tax rises and harsh public spending cuts over the life of the next parliament. There is uncertainty in Europe, with Greece facing political unrest and economic ruin. In Germany, chancellor Merkel is losing support, creating more political uncertainty. Slinking away from this and being able to blame both parties whilst regrouping (and refinancing) could be strategically favourable.

However, Labour sense a bigger prize. If they can hold together a political union with the Liberal Democrats and deliver voting reform, then there could be a centre left coalition for the foreseeable future.  The Tories could be consigned to history.

All parties appear to be doing anything to get a job that in the current circumstances could be the political ruination for whoever holds it.  More later.

Market Reaction at 10.45am:

Shares: no speculated collapse in the FTSE this morning, it is down 1.75%.

Pound: Down 0.9% against the US dollar, up 0.77% against the Euro, down 1% against the Yen

Political Reaction:

Sir Malcom Rifkind MP:

“The idea that the two parties that suffered most in this election, that were rejected by the electorate, that in the case of the Labour party lost a hundred of its seats, should put together an illegitimate government, this is the Robert Mugabe style of politics.  It’s exactly what Mugabe did you know, he lost the election and scrabbled to hold onto power.”

Angus Robertston MP (SNP Westminster leader)

“85% of voters in Scotland did not vote for the Conservative Party, and the idea that we could have a coalition cobbled between the third and fourth parties – because that is what they are the Tories and Lib Dems are in Scotland – would be totally unacceptable,”

Lord Ashdown:

“We have, on one hand, the question of stability and on the other hand, the programme of what is best for the country.”

Caroline Lucas MP (Green):

“This has been getting called a progressive coalition, but I have to say from our perspective there isn’t very much that’s progressive about Labour or indeed, in many respects, the Liberal Democrats.  So this is hopefully a coalition of reform, but I think in order to earn that name, if you like, then thoroughgoing electoral and political reform absolutely has to be at its heart.”

Peter Hain MP:

“Following the verdict of the people last Thursday, Gordon Brown has acted in the interests of the country. I pay tribute to his courage and leadership during very difficult times.”

Douglas Alexander MP:

“I can’t envisage circumstances in which we would enter into agreement with the Scottish National Party because there are fundamental differences between the Labour Party and SNP”.

David Miliband slip of the tongue?:

“I’m certainly not going to be saying anything more – and none of the candidates are going to be saying anything more either.”

Tessa Jowell MP:

“If the Liberals come to us and say can we discuss with you the possibility of cooperation in circumstances where no party has an overall majority, then I think that people would feel we were pretty irresponsible if we said no.”

David Blunkett:

“Can you trust the Liberal Democrats? They are behaving like every harlot in history.”

Simon Hughes MP:

“Our view has always been that we need to get a conclusion as soon as possible, certainly within this working week, we have had four days since the election results were declared.”

Lord Heseltine:

“The only viable solution is for David Cameron to become the prime minister.”

Newspaper Headlines:

The Daily Mirror – ‘For the greater Gord…’

The Sun – ‘Going Brown’

The Daily Mail – ‘A squalid day for democracy’

City A.M. – ‘Brown’s endgame’

Daily Express – ‘This shabby stitch-up’

The Guardian – ‘Brown plays last card’

Financial Times – ‘Brown to quit in bid to win over Lib Dems’

The Daily Telegraph – ‘A very Labour coup’

The Times – ‘His parting shot’

Media Reaction:

The Financial Times“Britain deserves better than this. The country needs a new government capable of setting out a credible back to fiscal rectitude. The price of a Lib-Lab agreement would be too high. To command the support of the regional parties, the government would almost certainly have to exempt them from the brunt of the severe cuts in public spending which will be required.”

The Daily Telegraph – “It is a measure of Gordon Brown’s loose grip on reality that he yesterday sought to depict his decision to stand down later this year as a noble act of self-sacrifice made in the national interest. The truth is that this was an act of quite staggering cynicism based on naked party advantage. With the incomprehensible connivance of Nick Clegg – whose reputation will surely never recover – Mr Brown is effectively seeking to nullify the result of last week’s general election.”

The Times – “The notion that Gordon Brown can be permitted to stay on as Prime Minister for another five months is an affront to democracy and – as the immediate movement of the pound showed – a danger to the economy. The mooted deal, in which the new coalition might force through a change to the electoral system without putting that to the people in a referendum, would be cynical to the point of moral corruption. Labour, however, has denied any such intention.”

The Guardian – “A coalition between the Liberal Democrats and Labour under a new leader is anything but a done deal at this stage. There are genuine problems of parliamentary arithmetic . Labour can be a brutal party as well as a benign one. Even after Mr. Brown’s announcement, there are issues of legitimacy with large electoral consequences to be assessed. The mere possibility of a progressive coalition is likely to rouse sections of the press to viciousness. It is vital to hold steady under this predictable assault.”

Ben Brogan, Daily Telegraph blogger – “Nick Clegg said the party that won the most seats and votes should have first go. He said he wanted to ensure strong and stable government in the national interest. He made plain he has little personal time for Mr Brown. His mentor Lord Ashdown on Sunday said Mr Brown was personally unsuited to coalition. David Laws said a few hours ago that the Lib Dems and Conservatives were down to negotiating over specific policy details, but a deal was near. How then will they explain themselves if, as Gordon Brown has announced, they are now negotiating a coalition of the losers with Labour?”

Ian Dale, political blogger – “The LibDems should bear one thing in mind when riding their two horses. David Milliband, the Labour leadership favourite, isn’t even on the Labour neogtiating team. So what happens when he takes over as Labour’s latest unelected Prime Minister? Will he be committed to the terms of the coalition agreement signed by Gordon Brown? One government is not bound by its predecessor.”

David Blunkett, Labour MP, The Guardian – “My belief is that it is untenable to create a rainbow alliance, dependent not just on the vagaries of a Liberal Democrat party prepared to get into bed with whoever is offering the most, but also the Nationalists or Ulster representatives – who could pull the plug on a coalition of the defeated at any time. This would result, almost inevitably, in a massive defeat for Labour at the hands of an electorate who would blame us for flouting the will of the substantial minority.”

Nick Robinson, BBC political editor – “Gordon Brown has made an audacious bid, not just to keep Labour in power but to reshape British politics by creating the sort of coalition not seen in Britain since the World War II. The prime minister was told by cabinet colleagues and by senior Liberal Democrats that there was little in the way of policy to stop their two parties working together, but that he was a barrier, in part because he was seen as un collegiate, in part because his continued presence was regarded as electorally toxic.”

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May 11th, 2010 by Simon Benson

Election Update 10 May

General Election Update

Nick Clegg, David Cameron and their teams continue to be engaged in discussions. The Prime Minister also met Clegg at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office on Saturday.  According to Sky sources, Clegg and Cameron also spoke on the telephone this morning for thirty minutes. Involved in many of the discussions are the Queen’s representative, Christopher Geidt and Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O’Donnell.

The trick for both parties is to be able to present a Government which will be credible to the electorate, their high-profile parliamentary members and their supporters. Already, Graham Brady MP, touted to be the Chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee has spoken of his dislike at the thought of a pact, saying: ‘My inclination is more towards seeking to operate as a minority Government, bringing in the support of others where it exists and where there is a consensus that can be created’.  The Liberal Democrat leader is meeting his MPs early this afternoon and Labour’s National Executive Committee is meeting tomorrow. David Cameron is meeting his MPs at 6pm tonight. For the Cabinet, it is ‘business as usual’, with the Chancellor attending meetings in Brussels and even defeated or retired MPs technically carrying on with their Ministerial roles. Whatever happens with the Government, the role of the various backbench committees will increase substantially in this Parliament. The House of Commons will soon find its voice again.

 

Local Elections Update

Labour can certainly take some comfort from the local election results that took place in some areas of England on Thursday night (elections took place in London boroughs, unitary and metropolitan authorities).  158 of the 164 councils affected have declared their results, which show Labour gaining the most.  Labour have gained control of 15 councils, while the Conservatives have lost 8, and the Liberal Democrats 4.  These results go against the national trends in the General Election, which showed big swings towards the Conservatives from Labour.  Fringe parties such as the BNP, UKIP, the Greens and Respect also made losses.  This can partly be explained by the fact that the elections were held on General Election day, meaning a much higher turnout than local authority elections that are not held in conjunction with any other elections. 

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gained at the last round of local elections thanks to low turnout and Labour’s unpopularity, but Labour have now taken back some key authorities, mainly gaining control over councils with no majority parties previously.  However, Labour managed 4 straight wins from other parties; they took Harrow, Ealing and Enfield from the Conservatives, and won back the Labour heartland of Liverpool from the Liberal Democrats.  Another big achievement for Brown’s party was in Barking and Dagenham, where all 12 BNP councillors lost their seats, along with the two Conservatives and 5 others – Labour now hold all 51 seats on the council. 

The Conservatives will be disappointed by the local results, but they remain the most powerful party in local government, with 65 councils under their control, compared with Labour’s 37.  They also won some local battles, notably winning Richmond-Upon-Thames from the Liberal Democrats, mirroring Zac Goldsmith’s victory in the Richmond Park constituency.  The Liberal Democrats were expecting better results, although they did manage to wrestle Winchester away from the Conservatives. 

Local Elections 2010 Councils Councillors
Party Total Net +/- Total Net +/-
Conservative 65 -8 3367 -123
Labour 37 +15 2892 +420
Liberal Democrat 13 -4 1640 -144
Others 0 0 277 -106
Residents Association 0 0 51 +2
Green 0 0 34 -4
British National Party 0 0 19 -26
Liberal 0 0 12 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 8 -5
Independent Health Concern 0 0 8 -2
Respect 0 0 4 -8
No Overall Control  45 -3    
158 of 164 councils have officially declared

 

Newspaper Headlines:

The Daily Mirror – ‘Con Dem Nation’

The Daily Mail – ‘A last throw of the dice’

The Sun – ‘Brown Monday’

City A.M. – ‘Markets await as politicians haggle’

Daily Express – ‘Cameron to be PM in days’

The Guardian – ‘Deadline day for Tory deal’

Financial Times – ‘Cameron closer to No10 after ‘very positive’ talks with Clegg’

The Times – ‘Britain on hold’

The Daily Telegraph – ‘A nation in limbo’

The Independent – ‘Three days on: still no deal as talks stalled on voting reform’

Reaction:

The Independent“Mr. Clegg is going to face internal dissent if he does a formal deal with the Tories, with many of his MPs and party members more instinctively comfortable with a partnership with Labour. But if an agreement could be reached between the Tory and Lib Dem leaderships on the economy, Europe education and taxation, that would surely be welcomed by the wider country.”

The Daily Telegraph – “The Conservatives dominated England, taking nearly 40 per cent of the vote and 297 seats compared to Labour’s 28 per cent voting share and 191 seats, while Labour was dominated in Scotland and Wales – yet they have their own parliament and assembly. The calls for England to have a separate parliamentary voice will inevitably grow louder. These are profound questions that do not lend themselves to a quick fix, merely to oblige the Commons voting lobbies. Mr Cameron was right to offer an all-party review; it needs to be wide-ranging, and certainly not rushed.”

The Times – “If David Cameron and Nick Clegg have the courage, they will forge an agreement this week that will transform both their parties and British government for good. No doubt, a deal presents risks for both men, but the benefits far outweigh them. For this is a moment when acting in the national interest will serve a political purpose.”

The Guardian – “Between them, Labour and the Lib Dems do not command a majority in the House of Commons. Other parties would have to be involved too, but this is certainly not impossible or unworkable. There are other progressives in parliament and Northern Ireland MPs of all stamps are well used to politics of naming and getting their price. Gordon Brown is an obstacle too. Rejected by the voters last week, his continuing role could stigmatize any pact that emerged from Labour-Lib Dem talks, would delegitimize any government formed to implement the pact and – harm the prospects of any referendum on any electoral and political reform.”

Ben Brogan, Daily Telegraph blogger – “Lots going on behind the scenes. The Tory whips are working the phones to rally support for the idea of a formal deal with the Lib Dems. I’m picking up a lot of anger among some Conservatives who fear that Dave is about to sell out to Nick Clegg when he doesn’t need to. They wonder if the leadership has noticed that the Lib Dems lost the election, as Michael Heseltine pointed out earlier. They complain that the leadership is being panicked by the BBC, which gives the impression that the Lib Dems won and are now at the head of a national movement for electoral reform.”

Ian Dale, political blogger – “I feel that the endgame is drawing near. Word from Iain Martin is that Number 10 has given up any hope of a Lib-Lab deal. The talks at the Cabinet Office are still going on and trying to hammer out an agreement. David Cameron is meeting Tory MPs at the moment to reassure he’s not selling off the family silver to the LibDems. LibDem and Tory spokesmen are being very statesmanlike on TV.”

Will Straw, Labour blogger – “Labour and the Lib Dems are wounded. Labour, for getting only 150,000 more votes than Michael Foot; the Lib Dems for losing five seats and not getting the vote-surge that everyone was expecting. This makes it hard to feel any momentum behind the possibility of a Lib/Lab or a rainbow coalition (and it is the latter, with the immense complexities it would bring, that would be required in order to marshal an actual majority).”

Liberal Conspiracy, Lib Dem blog – “Now the election is over, we seem to be moving into the politics of game-play and strategy. The discussion centres around what Nick Clegg can force out of the Tories, and how to bounce David Cameron into Proportional Representation. Associated with this are the recriminations over failed tactics.”

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May 10th, 2010 by Simon Benson

Election Type:
Legislative Election

Election Date:
May 6, 2010

Population (est.):
61,113,205 (2009)

Lead Bloggers

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Nick Williams has 15 years of experience providing senior communications advice to both the Labour Party (1993-97/2001/2005) and to major international com…

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Simon Benson joined Fleishman-Hillard after two and a half years in the heart of government as a special adviser to two Cabinet members, Hilary Armstrong M…

Major Parties

  • The Labour Party is a centre-left political party, founded in the early 20th century. Its current Leader is the Prime Minister, the Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP, who is looking to secure an historic fourth term for his Party. Its previous Leader, the Rt Hon Tony Blair, became the only Labour Leader to win three General Elections, after re-marketing it as a progressive centre left Party which could work with business. During the 1980's, the Party had moved radically left, securing its place in the political wilderness. The 'New' Labour badge was created by Blair, Lord Mandelson, and current Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP. Learn more at the Labour Party Web Site.
  • The Conservative Party was the dominant force in British politics for most of the 20th Century. It went into decline after 18 years of Government (1979-1997), but has had a renaissance under new Leader, the Rt Hon David Cameron MP, who looks set to win power at the next General Election. Baroness Thatcher won three General Elections as Conservative leader and modernised by restricting the power of the unions and the mass privatisations of assets. During her premiership, more people became shareholders than members of Trade Unions. David Cameron is modernising again, concentrating on 'compassionate Conservatism' with an emphasis on green politics and social change. He is helped by a united party hunger for power. Learn more at the Conservative Party Web Site.
  • The Liberal Democrats were formed by the merger of the old Liberal Party with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the latter being formed by disillusioned centre-ground Labour politicians in the 1980s. They have become a large force in local Government, but although they increased their seats at the last General Election, they remain the third party in UK politics. Nonetheless, its leader, Nick Clegg MP, could become an important power broker in the event of a General Election. The height of their recent popularity was during the Iraq War, as the only Party which opposed that war. Since the end of those hostilities, the Liberal Democrats have struggled to find a focus.  Learn more at the Liberal Democratic Party Web Site.

Goverment Structure

  • Parliamentary democracy comprised of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The Prime Minister is the Head of Government (executive), including the civil service. The Head of State is Queen Elizabeth II. The UK Parliament is comprised of the unelected House of Lords (Upper House) and the elected House of Commons (Lower House).
  • The General Election is the election of all Members of Parliament (MPs) to the House of Commons under a first past the post system. The Leader of the political party which gains a majority of the 650 seats available is appointed Prime Minister by the Queen. General Elections are usually held up to a maximum of five years apart, although both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair chose to hold them every four years. The timing of a General Election is the choice of the Prime Minister.