With 36,56% of the votes Socialist Party win the Portuguese elections but, as it was predicted, without the parliament majority. The biggest opposition party, Social Democratic Party (PSD) had 29,09% of the votes and was declared by all the political analysts as the “big looser” of this elections.
The biggest rise was Christian Democratic Party (CDS-PP) that went from 7,26% to 10,46% of the votes and elected 21 people against the 12 in 2005.
The left wings parties (BE and PCP-PEV) also increased their votes but not enough to provide a majority colligation with PS.
From now on, if PS doesn’t colligate with another party (and only PSD or CDS-PP have enough power to do that), Socialist Party will have to negotiate with all the parties (namely with CDS-PP) everything the government wants to approve in the parliament.
This can mean one of two things: More dialog with smaller parties or, hopefully not, political instability in Portugal for the next years.
Today were released the last pools before the electoral act next Sunday. After the “technical draw” in the beginning of the campaign, Socialist Party gain advantage and today pools indicate more than 8 points in the vote intentions than the second party, the Social Democrat Party.
What happened between the beginning of the campaign and today? Like in a “soap opera”, various episodes. First the more professional campaign from Socialist Party. Then innumerous “cases” that seems to benefited more the government party than the opposition. And, in the final week, the “President case” that forced the demission of Portuguese President press officer that, according to most political analysts, destroyed the Social Democratic Party Campaign (for those that doesn’t know, Portuguese President is from Social Democratic party).
Next Sunday, according to the pools, Socialist Party will win the elections again. But without majority in the parliament. Will it force negotiations with the left wing parties, or with the right wing parties? Next week we’ll see.
Most Portuguese, this writer included, have never seen such a “dirty” campaign as this actual campaign. The attacks and counter-attacks are launched every day, maybe every hour.
Will this have a effect in absenteeism? Will the non voters number rise? Or will the voters be more motivated to vote?
One thing is certain: The next Government, whatever it will be (and the polls are tending to PS – the actual government party) it will not be a majority one.
So, with this campaign it will be hard to negotiate compromises between different parties after the elections. The big question now is not just who will win the elections. It’s what’s next?
From September 2nd through the 21th, Portuguese voters are watching TV debates between the leaders from the five parties represented in the parliament.
The debates began with José Sócrates from PS, the actual Prime-Minister, and Paulo Portas, from CDS. Sadly, the debates weren’t particularly useful in helping voters to make a choice. They were very short on new ideas for the future.
But the last debate will be between the actual Prime-Minister and the challenger Manuela Ferreira Leite, from PSD. Unlike the others, this will be a consequential debate as one of them will be the next Prime-Minister. It could go either way as the current polls still point to a “technical draw”.
Will things change after next 12th September?
To Portugal the beginning of the fourth quarter will be a political show, in a kind of a loop. The Portuguese will vote for a new national government on September 27, closely followed by local elections on October 11. This means that the campaigns began a few months ago and will reach their peak in the next two weeks.
There are two major parties disputing the national elections, PS – Socialist Party and PSD – Social Democratic Party, and three smaller parties that can be useful in order to provide a majority to support a government: CDS – Right wing party, Bloco Esquerda – Left Wing party and PCP – Portuguese Communist Party.
Current polling suggests a “technical” draw between the two major parties, so the predictions are for a minority government. In the local elections with the exception of Lisbon, the country capital, and few other major cities, things are more stable.
Ipsis, Fleishman-Hillard’s Portuguese affiliate, has worked in the past on election campaigns and is currently assisting a number of candidates in the local elections. As such, we shall be following the Portuguese elections with some interest from as we are developing all efforts to guarantee some elections victories.
We’ll keep readers updated with developments in the campaign for the next weeks. We hope that you’ll enjoy it.
