Ireland’s 2nd Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty proposed by the European Council

The Irish electorate’s resounding “Yes” to the Lisbon Treaty this weekend (67.1% Yes, 32.9% No) has been welcomed by political leaders throughout the European Union and by European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso.

This time round Irish voters supported the Treaty, although some protagonists have been critical that the question was put to the people for a second time. Although if you aggregate the votes from the two referenda, there is no doubt the narrow NO last time and the resounding YES this time give a very clear answer in favour of ratifying the Treaty. This time around a lot of misunderstanding and unwarranted fears were removed from the debate particularly by some very effective communication from the Referendum Commission headed up by High Court Judge Frank Clarke. It is also true that the changed economic climate focused minds in favour of Ireland remaining as a committed member at the core of the European Union and of not taking any risks.

However, the Lisbon Treaty can only be ratified when all 27 Member States of the EU sign it. Attention now turns to Poland and the Czech Republic.  While both the Czech and Polish parliaments have already approved the Lisbon Treaty, Polish President, Lech Kaczynski, has yet to sign it (though this is believed to be imminent), while the Czech Republic’s President, Vaclav Klaus, is awaiting a pronouncement from the Czech Constitutional Court on the Treaty’s validity before proceeding. FH Dublin looks forward to some valuable insight from our colleagues in Warsaw and Prague!

We’re also watching Britain’s Conservative Party who are having their annual party conference this week. Their Leader, David Cameron and his now largely Euro-skeptic Party are in a bit of a pickle by sort of saying they’d have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty! They are saying this, in anticipation of winning the next British General Election to be held next year, eventhough the British Parliament and Government have already ratified the Treaty. We’ll see!

After a protracted period of scrutiny, spats and sometimes scurrilous goings-on, Ireland is relieved to have the glare of the international community focused elsewhere…..for now anyway.

Lisbon wins with 60% of vote.  Irish Times has the the up to date results.

7.30pm: With polling stations open until 10pm this evening, turnout so far is reported to be high in the Dublin area yet low elsewhere in Ireland. It is anticipated that with the working day now done – for most, at least! – a late surge of voting will take place this evening as commuters return home and to their local polling booths.

The Irish Prime Minister, Brian Cowen, this morning said he was “cautiously optimistic” on a “Yes” result. In many respects, his political future is riding on it.

Fleishman-Hillard’s very own Mark Mortell, hosts a special Lisbon Referendum Results edition of his hugely popular national weekly radio show, “Down To Business” – tomorrow  (Saturday 3^rd October) on Newstalk (Ireland’s National Independent Talk Radio Station) from 11.00am – 2.00pm UTC – which you can listen to live here: www.Newstalk.ie

Mark’s guests on the programme will include the most talked about figure in Lisbon I and II – Declan Ganly, leader of Libertas. This really is one not to miss!

More from Dublin, Ireland, once the results comes through. A nation holds its breath…

Previous posts have indicated that the No campaign on Lisbon has been more creative and compelling in their poster campaign.  It remains unclear to what degree their better posters will have an impact on the end result, but they certainly are entertaining and attention getting.  Fortunately for the Yes campaign, Ryanair has a last minute ad that challenges the No supporters, if not in creativity, certainly in bluntness.

Two days to go to Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. With airwaves and letter-boxes now saturated with campaign sound bites and paraphernalia, the polls are saying it looks like Lisbon will be passed, though perhaps only by a slim margin. Still, in politics as elsewhere in life, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is always possible, and the Yes side is spending the remaining time engaged in frenetic yet cautious canvassing of the electorate. The No camp is still in the race, however, and has maintained its leading position in the “poster-impact” stakes from beginning to end. Some have dismissively described the influence of posters as “white noise”, though they have again been a focal point for public discourse throughout the past month.

Another notable development of the Lisbon II campaign has been the performance of Declan Ganly of Libertas. While generating a considerable din in recent days since his tardy and unexpected return to the political scene (having been personally rejected by the electorate in the European elections last June), Ganly has not been as sure-footed during this campaign as he unquestionably was during Lisbon I. His media displays have, at best, been mixed, and his high-profile televised head-to-head with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary was a unanimous points victory for the aviator. You can watch and listen to this and other Lisbon II debates at: http://www.rte.ie/news/features/lisbontreaty/debates.html

An excellent article by the Sunday Tribune paints an interesting picture of how the campaign has unfolded in recent weeks, though there’s much to suggest that there are still a few twists and turns left in this divisive yet intriguing campaign. So, as October 2^nd approaches, the courting of the large cohort of undecided voters continues apace, and will be critical to the final outcome. We’ll be sure to update you on developments as they arise over the coming days. One thing is clear, however – Ireland is today at a civic and economic crossroads, on the brink of a new era. Whether that era is one that embraces or rejects Europe, time will soon tell.

For the record, the following is a list of the main groups supporting and opposing the Lisbon Treaty Referendum:

For Lisbon: All main political parties on Government and opposition sides of the Irish parliament (96% of national representation – Fianna Fáil, Green Party, Fine Gael, Labour), Ireland for Europe, Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC), Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU), We Belong, Generation Yes

Against Lisbon: Sinn Féin, Libertas, Coir, People Before Profit Alliance, Socialist Party, United Kingdom Independence Party, Women Say No to Lisbon – Again