German Federal Election

Oh my God! The voter’s cake has been split up and the Social Democrats only get the crumbs. The Grand Coalition is over – the new German government will be formed by Christian Democrats and Liberals.

The final official result of the German federal elections is the following:

The political landscape has finally changed. A political earthquake? A political landslide? In reality it was a change that could have been experienced for years but everybody (at least in the SPD) refused to realize. Germany finally has reached the five party system on federal level (some speak of a six party system when you separate the Christian Democrats from their Bavarian sister party CSU). For the first time, all three “little” parties FDP, Left and Greens have double-digit results, the “big” two catch-all parties lose 12.6% (okay I have to admit most have been lost by the SPD).

I am quite sure that Chancellor Merkel (by the way it is democratic tradition to congratulate her!) is not really amused about the result of the election. She was Ms Grand Coalition and had a good standing within her party and among the population. The politics of the Grand Coalition has been her politics to a certain extent. Now, she will have to form a Coalition with two partners, CSU and FDP, which prefer political ideas Angela Merkel always refused to accept in times of the former Grand Coalition (e.g. tax reductions). In addition, her “presidential election campaign” has weakened Ms Merkel’s position as a CDU party leader and has brought her own party into a relatively weak position in this new government coalition. Last but not least, Angela Merkel will face an opposition block of Social Democrats, Greens and Left – almost 47% opposition which is very close on many topics. There is no doubt, the real winner of the election are the Liberals (FDP) which will now try to dominate the course of that union. Media already speak of the “halved chancellor”. Hard times for Angela!

Some words about the Social Democrats: 23% is the worst result of the SPD in a federal election ever. Until now, the record was 28.8% in 1953 but HOORAY! the Social Democrats have been able to top that negative result with Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Never before have we seen faces of Social Democrats like those yesterday evening. Catastrophe, disaster, horror – what a mixture of negative words was used by SPD top politicians. Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in his first appearance that personal conclusions must be drawn – so he will take over the SPD lead in the opposition. At the same time, Franz Müntefering, head of the party, stated that personal conclusions have to be drawn – so he will stay at the top of the party until the party decides something else.

The Social Democrats stand at their historical turning point and they know it. The discussion about people and programs has already started this morning and will dominate the party over the next months. In the end the old SPD must renew itself or will disappear not only as a catch-all party from the political landscape.

By the way: there have also been elections in two German federal states, Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg. This is important because the likely victory of the CDU and Liberals in Schleswig-Holstein will provide the two parties on federal level also with a majority in the Bundesrat, the representation of the sixteen German federal states which is relevant for the approval of many legislative processes.

Blogging is good for the soul – it helps talking something away.

Links to the final results:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/

http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2009/bundestagswahl-2009.htm

Happy Hour für Schwarz-Gelb: Guido Westerwelle und Angela Merkel bei der TV-Runde der Spitzenkandidaten. Getty Images

As expected, fewer voters than ever before (72.5% vs 77.7% in 2005) have decided to give Germany a shot at what will be change and continuation in the same time.   The results were a deep shock for anybody who sees beyond his own personal interests.

Continuity, since Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor. Change, since the new coalition-partner of the Angela Merkel’s Conservative Party (33.9% / -1.3%) will be the Liberal Party (14.6% / +4.8%) whose Chairman Guido Westerwelle, will most likely become the future German Minister for Foreign Affairs.

So far no a real surprise, but a real chance for what the majority of Germans are desperately looking forward to: reforms and reforms – in nearly all areas.

However, the relief about this part of the results goes hand in hand with a shock about the rest.

First: In contrary to what the polls of the last two weeks had predicted, the Socialdemocrats achieved their worst result since the Federal Republic was founded in 1949: 23%. (-11.2%) More than 2 million formerly committed socialdemocratic voters decided to stay at home and leave the decision on Germany’s future in the hands of the other 60 million. To put it bluntly: The Socialdemocrats lost 3.3% just by frustrated friends turning themselves to non-voters.

Secondly: The Socialists are the second winners of the day, achieving 11.9% (+3.2%) and thus even getting ahead of the Greens (10.7% / +2.6%).  Der Speigel has some excellent charts that illustrate the point.

In conclusion: The political landscape of Germany has fundamentally changed with this election.

Though Germany will again be ruled by a conservative-liberal coalition like in the times of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, the difference will be that the Conservatives in those times had four to five-times as many seats in Parliament as the Liberals – whereas today the Liberals will hold nearly half of the number of seats held by the Conservatives.

To make it even more difficult, the newly elected German Government of Conservatives and Liberals will face an opposition in the Federal Parliament that will definitely show a kind of aggressiveness that German politics has not seen for quite some time.

Why so? – Because the Socialdemocrats (as foreseen) are no longer what they have been for more than 100 years: A “Volkspartei”, a “people’s party”, which means a party that had been elected by labours as well as academics as well as owners of small and mid-sized companies and even by some famous managers of global blue chip-firms.

The party of Friedrich Ebert, the “Weimarer Republik’s” first democratically elected President (1919); of Kurt Schumacher, the brillant but bitter Socialdemocratic post-war-leader, tortured by the Nazis, offended and cheated by Adenauer; of Willy Brandt, the most visionary, foreward looking and decision-making Chancellor Germany ever had; of Helmut Schmidt, the most analytic, pragmatic, and intellectually subtle Chancellor Germany ever had. – This Socialdemocratic Party doesn’t exist any more. And if this party really wants to come back, it has to recreate itself out of the ruins  of its own creation.

Why so? – Because the Socialists seem to have achieved what they’ve sought for years: Entering the German Federal Parliament with a quantity of seats that will turn them from the outcast to political factor to be reckoned with, finally and definitely present everywhere.

And the Greens? – Well the Greens became a kind of sentimental being or, as some said this evening, the factotum of the “Bundestag”. Though they have won some additional percent and some additional seats, they won’t really matter any longer. But, of course, will scream all the louder.

Angela Merkel grinned like a Cheshire cat when she spoke to her party members and later in the night to the citizens of Germany. She will know that none other than Guido Westerwelle crowned her Queen of Germany for the second time. Without him she wouldn’t have had a chance – an reality that will definitely not be forgotten by some in her own party. Such voices have already started to heavily criticize Merkel and her campaigners for having been too vague and too defensive during the election campaign. And indeed, based on poll-numbers and their development over the weeks of the campaign, the conservatives lost 5-7% within the last six weeks, whereas the Liberals first went down and then came back and turned out to be stronger than ever in their history. – Could the message be more explicite?

Even our European and, may be, even our transatlantic partners will see Angela Merkel and Guido Westerwelle as the dream-team for the next four years. Nobody, however, should suggest that it’s not about two persons only… but about a long list of themes and issues and needs for compromises…We will definitely come back on that soon.

Photo by Aaron Gershfield

I’m not a naturally born campaigner. My DNA is more about the rational view of the world. However I’m a human being, a political animal and one of the greatest fans of the various genres of theatre.

As such, I do have quite solid experience on what works ‘on stage’ and I’m also known to have a bastic instinct alerting me in which direction a threat might come. Maybe this instinct doesn’t always work in private life, but it definitely works when it comes to politics.

Having said this, one may understand that I feel guilty. Should I have called her? Should I have warned her?

What happened? Nothing special. I just joined the show Angela Merkel’s creative campaign directors arranged to bring about what these guys may call the culmination of the dramaturgy of an election campaign.

I call it the most painful minutes I ever had to go through as an ordinary spectator.

Not that the flags and logos are wrong – shown recently on a popular TV-news show.  Not that the speeches would have lacked more content than usual.

No, it was about the music. More precisely: It was about the text of the passage of the song Angela Merkel’s campaigners decided to play when she would enter the stage and when she would leave it again after her speech.

We’re not talking about the German hymne, traditionally being sung at the end of any official meeting of the German Conservatives.

We’re talking about the Rolling Stones!

More precisely about their song “Angie”.  A great song. A powerful song. An emotional song. I’m sure it was Mick Jagger and this song that  encouraged me to kiss that wonderful girl I fell in love with when I was fourteen. And I’m sure it was Mick Jagger’s voice and his words I listened to for five nights straight with tears in my eyes after that kissed blond girl told me she loved another boy.

Angela Merkel’s heroes of the election campaign never seemed to have fallen in love and been rejected like me. Fortunate guys. Otherwise I’m sure they never would have forgotten the decisive words Mick Jagger sadly breathes in that song:

“Angie – - – All the dreams we held so close / seemed to all go up in smoke – - – Angie – - – Aaaangie – - – !”

The strongest fighter for Angela Merkel can still be found in the opposition. Guido Westerwelle, Chairman of the Liberals, is storming through this election campaign as if the well-being of the republic would depend on him.

And maybe this is even the case. No doubt, the closer we get to the election, the closer Angela Merkel’s fate is to that of Guido Westerwelle.

It could be worse for the chancellor in an election campaign that has been declared by the media as a “war of cotton balls.”  The leading political weekly periodical “Der Spiegel” has downgraded it to the “valium campaign”.

No one can hold Guido Westerwelle responsible for the miserable show of the main candidates during the last few weeks. His show was – and still is – terrific. In genuine appreciation and in memory of Guiseppe Verdis fulminant opera, the Süddeutsche Zeitung has just crowned him the “political figaro”: “Westerwelle is everywhere. Figaro on top! Figaro below! Figaro here! Figaro there! Bravo, bravissimo.“ This is not undeserved. It is very likely that this even anticipates that this man will soon not only be the front fighter of the Liberals but will travel the world as Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor in a coalition nobody knows yet.

It is certain that the Liberals will be one of the coalition partners for the conservatives.  This seems to be for sure 5 days before the election. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like  that result will be sufficient to make Guido Westerwelle THE one and only coalition partner of Angela Merkel.

If you see Guido Westerwelle during these days and if you listen to what he says you can feel how annoyed he is about this fact. But you can also see how this turns his ambition on even more, how his rhetorical temperament and his terrific humour and sarcasm are culminating in ever new punchlines. Punchlines that become headlines later on and that can be seen non stop on all channels during the next 24 hours. So that’s the way to stage a perfect election campaign with a single person. So that’s the way to amuse the people even if they remain ungrateful and vote for you merely for tactical reasons.

In Germany the Liberals are a small party. But they do have a great history. Once, back in 1969, the difficult times of a grand coalition were determined with their help and new start was possible. This could happen again now.

However – while in those days it had been the Socialdemocrats having been chosen the partner to go with and to prepare the ground for a new, future oriented political framework, nowadays it would be the Conservatives to offer a clear vision of how to navigate Germany through its biggest economic crisis ever.

With this in mind – and given the level of self destruction of the Socialdemocrats – there’s no alternative for the Liberals to go with.  Guido Westerwelle is smart enough to have realized this long ago.  Some say it might even have been on  the evening of the last election when he got desastrous results for his own party – a kind of receipt for an election campaign called “fun campaign” by their own strategists, presented as a mixture of bizarre overstatement and total loss of realism.

Now, four years later, a new campaigner Guido Westerwelle presents himself to the German voters. Tough, serious, precise. Smiling like somebody who knows this fight is won.

One who aims to become Foreign Minister. One who knows which tie he has to wear to achieve this goal. And who indeed seems to have realistic chances. If latest polls are right.

And, if he is accepted to share power not only with Angela Merkel and the Conservatives but with a third partner – most probably the Greens.

From his perspective this aspect must feel like loosing a present which he already held in his hands: The alliance of power shared with nobody else than the Conservatives. As poll numbers showed until five weeks back.

But now Guido Westerwelle became a victim of the desaster created by Angela Merkels strategists. Strategists who completely failed. Or – as some say – fell asleep before the race had started.

Or – as others suspect – they may have been smarter than anybody would have thought they could be. What if “Angela” due to the quite ambivalent relationship she’s having with “Guido” (whom on private level she calls with the German “Du”, however in quite some critical situations must realize he is a political fox).  Mostly likely, she would have done all she could to avoid having to sit with him alone on the governments chairs.

Indeed, as partner in a three-party-coalition the Liberals would face more and higher ideological barriers between themselves and the Greens than the Conservatives would.

Sure – there’s the policy about nuclear power. But – wouldn’t the Greens be an ideal door opener for a new and future oriented Conservative Party? One that helped the Conservatives to finally show the cold shoulder to all of those energy companies holding the real power in their hands and – over the past twenty years – bringing this party regularly into deepest trouble. Just recently again when, on due course of the election campaign papers have been detected and brought to the attention of the public which prove that the Government under Chancellor Helmut Kohl even put scientists under pressure to get reports stating a level of safety of underground storages for nuclear waste which – as it now occures – never existed. A nightmare that cost the Conservatives a real percentage of potential voter’s and, in effect, get them drifting another real step away from traditional concepts and into the direction where the future is.

The Liberals on the other side of the table would face quite bigger fights with the Greens – mainly with respect to totally different concepts of social, economic and tax politics.

Whatsoever – one is clear. It’ll most probably be nobody other than Guido Westerwelle who will ultimately decide in which direction Germany will go.

It may even be up to him to decide whether Angela Merkel will stay in power, or not. He gave the fighter and the figaro to become the man at her side.

Yes, sure, and foreign minister.  Not to forget.

The boredom of this year’s election campaign could not be greater! Historians will look back on the second Grand Coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany by evaluating its work quite positively – but they will also speak of the most boring election campaign ever.

Against everyone’s expectation, even the soliloquy of the Federal Government during the TV duel a few days ago did not push Chancellor Merkel into a political repartee, not even into a political discussion. The German voter is yawning and beginning to show first reactions that are making the Christian Democrats quite nervous.

Four days before the election, conservatives are thinking out loud that the so-called “presidential election campaign” of Chancellor Angela Merkel has perhaps been the wrong strategy. The Bavarian sister party of Christian Socialists (CSU) hastily published its own economic programme and offered tax reductions starting in early 2011. What a side blow to Chancellor Merkel who always followed a joint CDU-CSU strategy and always refused promising tax reductions in connection with a specific date. At the same time, leading members of the CDU party board are demanding a more aggressive campaign in order to catch voters – an insight which should have come a bit earlier?

The discussion during the election campaign about how to lead such a campaign has always been up to the Social Democratic Party. How wonderful and refreshing that even the conservatives nowadays are able to question themselves!

Only four days left and the actual opinion polls (Forsa) tell us that CDU/CSU drop one point (35%), SPD wins one again (26%), Liberals (FDP) get one point from the conservatives (13%) and Greens (11%) as well as Leftists (10%) keep their stakes in the voter’s cake.

These dry figures are getting more interesting with the “clear” coalition statements repeated hundreds of times by the different parties. Taking these statements into account there seem to be a real danger that Germany will not get a government at all on the 27 September 2009 – no party wants to build a coalition with another party which has enough votes to build a new government!

• CDU/CSU keep telling us that they do not want to prolong the Grand Coalition and only want to go for a coalition of conservatives and Liberals.

• The SPD keep saying that it does not want to prolong the Grand Coalition and prefers a coalition with Greens and Liberals. At the same time they exclude a coalition with the Left and fight against the Liberals as their preferred political enemy.

• The Liberals keep telling that they will not go for a coalition with conservatives and Greens (so-called Jamaica coalition) and not for a coalition with Social Democrats and Greens, only with the conservatives alone.

Is the danger of not getting a government at all the reason why the OSCE decided sending election watchdogs to the Federal Republic of Germany? For the first time, ODIHR (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) watchdogs will visit poll sites, will ask questions and will provide a report to OSCE on the German federal elections. OSCE officially states that Germany is the only large member state which has not yet been visited during an election campaign.

HOWEVER, IS THIS REALLY THE WHOLE STORY?

Links to actual opinion polls here and interesting facts about the election in Germany here.   All in German.