The Biggest Change in U.K. Public Affairs for 13 years

Are you ready for the biggest change in public affairs for 13 years? In just over eight months time it will be the UK Election Day: Thursday 6th May. The next eight months will see the biggest – and most important changes in PA since Tony Blair’s historic 1997 win. This is for three reasons.

Firstly, the next eight month period will focus politicians’ minds more than ever on one thing – winning votes. This means that from a Government point of view political expediency and not necessarily the advice of bureaucrats will win the day. Businesses looking to deliver results from Government in this period need always to remember this political reality. This is particularly the case since Gordon Brown’s Government is on the rocks and losing support gradually.

Secondly, for the past 12 years, companies have become familiar with broadly the same key Labour Government politicians and advisers. Given the current political situation this is all likely to change – and change dramatically. The past few months have seen a noticeable change in clients’ requirements in their desire to understand what a Cameron Government will mean for them.

The third change to public affairs will develop if any Conservative win is narrow. It is worth noting that the electoral arithmetic means that an 11 point lead over Labour will give David Cameron a majority of one. Historically, incumbent governments (apart from in 1997) have been able to narrow any large opinion poll lead at the time of the election. There could easily be a small Conservative majority.

When Tony Blair won with a huge majority in 1997, power moved immediately from Parliament to Downing Street/Whitehall with the former largely becoming a rubber stamp. By and large this has continued. However, any small Cameron majority will reverse this power shift with Parliament regaining greater influence. This means that Parliament will potentially be able to dramatically influence Conservative Government policy and if that is the case, traditional public affairs campaigns and techniques designed to win Parliamentary votes – techniques that will not have been used often since 1997 – will come back to the fore. Recognising the potential for this and possessing the Parliamentary skills needed to undertake such activities will be a crucial shift for public affairs practitioners.

The biggest change in public affairs for 13 years? On current evidence the clear answer is yes. David Cameron’s Conservative Party is constantly ahead in the opinion polls and last week, Britain’s biggest national newspaper, The Sun, came out in support of Cameron the day after Brown’s set piece speech at the Labour party Conference. Whether some public affairs companies are ready for these changes is another matter.

We will keep you posted with regular blogs on the evolving UK political situation.