“Many voters like to go with the ‘devil they know’. In this case, neither (Gillard nor Abbott) really fit that bill. Many voters may … see Bob Brown as the “devil they know” and a hedging option if they are not convinced by the Labor or Liberal offering,”
Rowland Insights July 20th 2010
“Remember that there are 3 independents currently in the House of Representatives. The Greens may pick up one or two more in the inner-city seats …. that raises the possibility of a hung parliament and a minority Government. With the Greens hoping to pick up some Senate seats, they could have the balance of power in both Houses.”
Rowland Insights July 20th 2010
“A plague o’ both your Houses…”
Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet, 1592
“… democracy is the winner, tonight…”
with apologies to footballers everywhere
“Never underestimate the intelligence of the Australian electorate…”
Bob Hawke
Labor may well crawl back into Government, but they have had their majority stripped away with strong swings against them in NSW, Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia. At the same time there were swings towards Labor in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.
The debate as to what caused this double hung parliament will go on for some time. One commentator probably was the most correct when he suggested that every theory has a grain of truth to it. The trends were regionally based and can be linked to issues such as the Mining Tax, asylum seekers, an aversion to waste and debt, frustration at the lack of competence of some State administrations affecting the Labor brand.
While many are saying that voters were influenced by disappointment in the way Kevin Rudd was removed from the Prime Ministership, the evidence is not convincing. The public polls show clearly that the Labor vote was considerably weaker until Rudd was removed. Gillard saved the party from certain disaster. Moreover, in Rudd’s own electorate of Griffith, his personal vote suffered a 9.0% swing, and his Two Party Preferred vote dropped by 4.1%.
The election campaign was frustrating to watch as the Leaders tried desperately to maintain their discipline and the policy initiatives trickled out without a definitive statement of vision or purpose. ‘Moving Forward’ and ‘Real Action’ are almost interchangeable for their lack of meaning. Anecdotal evidence is that voters were frustrated from a lack of purpose in addressing major policy concerns. The only real point of difference was on Broadband. The rest was a race to the bottom – the lowest common denominator on issues such as asylum seekers, climate change, gay marriage.
The gross result of this confusion was an uncertainty across the country about who to back. The Greens recorded historically high votes across the nation – 11.4% and higher in the Senate (but still lower than the 15% the polls were suggesting). Family First also did well in Queensland and South Australia, recording small but significant votes of 3%- 4%. Labor candidates with suppressed primary votes were hoping to utilise the 80% of Green preferences that flowed to Labor to overtake the higher Liberal vote. Family First preferences often put the Liberal candidates out of reach for Labor, so those ALP candidates that did not work hard in their electorates over the last three years found themselves too far behind.
The Senate outcome is likely to be Labor 31, Coalition 34, Greens 9, Xenophon 1 and the return of the DLP 1. To win a vote in the Senate, 39 votes are required. The Greens therefore hold the absolute balance of power from 1 July next year.
In the House of Representatives, the net result was a balance of seats between the major parties that means neither can command an outright majority. The latest count is that of the 150 lower house seats on offer, Labor have 72, the Liberals/Nationals have 71, there are 3 independents, 1 Green and 3 still undecided (Hasluck WA, Brisbane QLD, Denison TAS). Labor is behind in all 3, the Liberals will pick up 2 and there may be another independent.
What happens from here?
The magic number is 76 – that is the minimum number to achieve a majority of the 150 votes. If the Liberals achieve 73 seats, they may be able to form a minority Government with the support of the three independents who were all National Party members in the past. While they represent electorates that have been traditionally conservative, their policy and political agendas may not necessarily equate to support for Tony Abbott. If the Liberal Coalition have less than 73 seats, they cannot form a majority.
Labor would need to win both Hasluck and Brisbane to be able to form a majority without the conservative independents. This seems unlikely on current counting. That means that Julia Gillard will be focusing on winning the support of at least two of the conservative independents. If she manages to win over all three, the final balance of seats to Liberal or Labor becomes academic and Gillard will be able to form a government before final declarations which are not due until the week beginning 6 September.
In the meantime, the Caretaker conventions continue. Gillard and her Ministers continue to operate as a Government, but cannot make any significant decisions without the bi-partisan endorsement of the Coalition.
What does it mean for Queensland?
Labor got a hiding in Queensland. The primary vote plummeted to 34% (when 42% is normally required to win the majority of seats), with the LNP achieving a very respectable 47%. The Greens were a little under the national average with 10.4%. The 6 seats lost (9 if you count those made notionally Labor by the redistribution) included seats not expected to fall which held Gillard back from retaining a majority. Longman, Forde, Bonner and Brisbane were all seats that could have been held by Labor in the same way that Moreton and Petrie were retained.
This was a Federal Election, not a State election, but the voting patterns are consistent with current polling on the Bligh Government. If these trends in Two Party Preferred swings hold to March 2012, the balance of seats in the Queensland Parliament would be almost exactly reversed with a transfer of 18 seats providing the LNP with an absolute majority. If the Green vote is similarly high in the State election, however, the result for Labor could be worse as Optional Preferential voting would see many Green votes exhaust without preferencing Labor.
Labor’s brand is becoming as tainted in Queensland as it is in New South Wales. With Anna Bligh’s dissatisfaction rating sitting at 70%, it’s not surprising that the rumour mills are churning with disenchantment. No obvious moves are yet afoot, and the Premier is standing her ground and not conceding any policy changes, but unless there is substantial improvement in these numbers there will be dozens of ALP members of Parliament worrying about their future career options.
Watch this space….